How
Safe is flying?
How safe if flying can only be comprehended by
the average air traveler if there is some form of comparison.
The most easily understood method is through statistics.
Statistics, however are derived from a few methods.
The first attempt to measure safety was by
calculating the deaths per billion passenger miles. This
method was not very accurate as it treated fatality as
proportional to distances flown. Thus, there would be
discrepancies when trying to compare two Airlines, one that
fly short distances and the other one that specializes in long
haul flights. When these two Airlines carrying the
same number of passengers are involved in a fatal crash, they
would reveal different statistics.
The second method used 'death per enplanement'
formula. It used the ratio of passengers killed to the number
of passengers carried. Again, this would not provide an
accurate picture. For instance, if a wide body aircraft
is flying under capacity, say 100 instead of 400 passengers,
in a crash, it would give a different result when compared to
small aircraft flying with full capacity.
The preferable method is the death risk index
that is based on a passenger who would be involved in a fatal
accident if he takes a random flight over a particular period.
The 10 years statistics compiled by Dr Arnold
Barnett from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for the
period 1987 to 1996 indicated that the mortality risk per
flight for international jet in the advanced world was one in
five million. Translated simply, if you were to take a
random flight every day, it would take you about 13,000 years
(5,000,000 divided by 365 days) to be involved in a fatal
crash. In the developing word, the statistics is lower;
one in 400,000 flights. With this lower statistic, you still
have to take a flight every day for about 1000 years before
you are likely to be killed in an air crash!
To give you a better picture, why not compare
this safety statistics to something more down to earth, the
motor car? Please bear with me for statistics can be a bit
technical and complicated to understand sometimes. According
to the US National Safety Council, the Scheduled Airlines
death rate was 0.04 per hundred million passenger miles.
Compared to the automobile death rate of 0.86 per hundred
million passenger miles, traveling in motor cars are 21 times
more dangerous than flying by air.
In terms of number of deaths, the comparative
figures are more discouraging. In 1995, there were
only 175 deaths due to air crash in the US compared to 42000
killed in motor accidents. This is 240 times more deaths due
to driving than flying! In 1998, there were no air fatalities
involving commercial flights in the US but the figures for
2001 may be more in view of the latest Airbus 300 crash in New
York with 260 deaths. The statistics above does not include
death in the air caused by terrorism or hijackings.
Which
is the safest Airline?
Some air travelers would also like to know as
to which Airline is safer than the others. Generally, Airlines
from the advanced world have a better safety records than
those from the developing world.
It must be borne in mind that the safety of an
Airline is dependant on many factors, namely the management of
the Company, the age of the aircraft, how the training
standards are being maintained, whether the standard operating
procedures are properly adhered to, the proper maintenance of
the aircraft and sometimes there are outside factors that are
beyond their control. Accidents that arose can be a
combination of many factors.
Listed below are the 10 safest Airlines for
each region of the world. The list is not meant to endorse any
Airlines nor to discredit others. It is meant to be for the
knowledge and guidance of the air travelers. The rankings are
based on the factual accident rate which are subjected to
corrections as time changes.
Safest Airline
United States and Canada
|
Rankings |
Airlines |
Accident Rate |
| 1 |
Delta
Airlines |
0.30 |
| 2 |
North
West |
0.43 |
| 3 |
Aloha
Airlines |
0.49 |
| 4 |
United
Airlines |
0.50 |
| 5 |
American
Airlines |
0.53 |
| 6 |
US
Air |
0.56 |
| 7 |
Air
Canada |
0.63 |
| 7 |
Continental
Airlines |
0.63 |
| 8 |
Alaska
Airlines |
0.74 |
| 8 |
TWA |
0.74 |
United States and Canada are classified under
the Advanced World category. From the table above, the
accident rates for all the 10 Airlines are below 1.0
indicating that have a very safe record. So you can choose any
of them between 1 and 8 and they should deliver you to your
destinations safely.
Caribbean & Latin/South America
| Rankings |
Airlines |
Accident
Rate |
| 1 |
Mexicana
Airlines |
0.53 |
| 2 |
Aerolineas
Argentinas |
1.20 |
| 3 |
Varig |
1.22 |
| 4 |
Aeromexico |
1.85 |
| 5 |
Transbrazil |
2.35 |
| 6 |
Avianca |
3.15 |
| 7 |
VASP |
3.24 |
| 8 |
LAN
Chile |
4.00 |
| 9 |
Aero
Peru |
16.7 |
| 10 |
Cubana |
24.0 |
In the Caribbean & Latin/South American
areas, the disparity between the safest and the least safest
is quite marked. The first five rankings seems reasonable even
though they are classified under the Developing World
category..
Europe
| Rankings |
Airlines |
Accident
Rate |
| 1 |
British
Airways |
0.32 |
| 2 |
Lufthansa |
0.41 |
| 3 |
Braathens
SAFE |
0.74 |
| 4 |
Alitalia |
0.77 |
| 5 |
Iberia |
0.89 |
| 6 |
British
Midlands |
0.97 |
| 7 |
TAP
Portugal |
1.18 |
| 8 |
Air
France |
1.19 |
| 9 |
Swiss
Air |
1.25 |
| 10 |
Olympic
Airways |
1.67 |
European Airlines all come under the Advanced
World category and their records indicate their better safety
standards.
Africa and Middle East
| Rankings |
Airlines |
Accident
Rate |
| 1 |
South
African |
0.63 |
| 2 |
Saudi
Airlines |
1.40 |
| 3 |
Royal
Air Moroc |
1.54 |
| 4 |
Kenyan
Airways |
3.00 |
| 5 |
Air
Afrique |
3.33 |
| 6 |
Ethopian |
4.00 |
| 7 |
Nigerian
Airways |
5.00 |
| 8 |
Egypt
Air |
8.00 |
| 9 |
Royal
Jordanian |
8.82 |
| 10 |
Air
Zimbabwe |
12.50 |
In Africa and the Middle East, only South
Africa has been grouped under the Advanced World category.
Its record is fairly impressive when compared to the other
African/Middle East countries.
Australia and Asia
| Rankings |
Airlines |
Accident
Rate |
| 1 |
Qantas |
0.00 |
| 2 |
All
Nippon Airways |
0.22 |
| 3 |
Air New
Zealand |
0.74 |
| 4 |
Cathay
Pacific Airways |
0.97 |
| 5 |
Malaysia
Airlines |
1.11 |
| 6 |
Thai
International |
1.90 |
| 7 |
Singapore/Silk
Air |
2.00 |
| 8 |
Japan
Airlines |
2.05 |
| 9 |
Garuda
Airlines |
4.08 |
| 10 |
Philippines
Airlines |
4.68 |
The
Rankings listed above are for information only and are the
personal opinion of the author. There are many criteria used
by other organizations to provide rankings for Airlines and
the author is not legally responsible for any reliance of the
above information.
Statistics valid
through December 31, 2000
Sources:
AirDasaster.com
Qantas appears to be one of the safest Airline in the world
with a record of zero fatalities in its many years of
operation. All Nippon Airways has a even better record than
the American or European best Airlines.
Which is the
safest aircraft?
As a general rule, newer aircraft model are safer for
obvious reasons. The Boeing 777 has been in operation
for about 5 years and has the least accident rate. It
would be my choice as the safest aircraft. Besides, I
fly this aircraft and can vouch for its comfort and
reliability. I do not represent the Manufacturer but I
can say that this aircraft is very versatile with many safety
features. It is the first aircraft to be completely
designed by computers and has the latest avionics and
navigational systems.
However, all other aircraft are just as safe. The
certification of every aircraft model must adhere to the same
set of standards otherwise they would not be released by the
authorities for the carriage of passengers.
Below is a list of safest aircraft rankings based on the
accident rate. I have added 3 new model of the latest
aircraft, the Boeing 777, Airbus 340 and Airbus 330.
So far, the Boeing 777 and the Airbus 340 have a clean record
and are therefore rated safest according to my ranking.
|
Rankings |
Aircraft
Model |
Accident
Rate |
| 1 |
Boeing
777 |
0.00 |
| 1 |
Airbus
340 |
0.00 |
| 2 |
Airbus
330 |
n/a |
| 2 |
Saab
340 |
0.33 |
| 3 |
McDonnell
MD-80 |
0.40 |
| 4 |
Boeing
767 |
0.46 |
| 5 |
Boeing
757 |
0.56 |
| 6 |
Boeing
737 |
0.60 |
| 7 |
Boeing
727 |
0.66 |
| 8 |
Fokker70/100 |
0.67 |
| 8 |
Airbus
319/320/321 |
0.67 |
| 9 |
Embrader
120 |
0.71 |
| 10 |
McDonnell
DC-9 |
0.76 |
| 11 |
BAE 146 |
0.89 |
| 12 |
L-1011
Tristar |
0.91 |
| 13 |
Airbus
300 |
1.00 |
| 14 |
Boeing
747 |
1.55 |
| 15 |
Airbus
310 |
1.85 |
| 16 |
McDonnell
DC-10 |
1.97 |
| 17 |
Fokker
28 |
2.35 |
| 18 |
Embrader
110 |
3.73 |
| 19 |
McDonnell
MD-11 |
5.71 |
| 20 |
Aerospatile
Concorde |
12.50 |
The
Rankings listed above are for information only and are the
personal opinion of the author. There are many criteria used
by other organizations to provide rankings for Airlines and
the author is not legally responsible for any reliance of the
above information.
Statistics valid
through December 31, 2000.
Sources:
AirDasaster.com
How stringent are
maintenance of aircraft?
Maintenance of an aircraft is many times more stringent
than that of your car. If you have a problem with your car,
you can always stop by the roadside to rectify it or call for
the mechanic to help out. Whereas in the air, any
serious defect could put many lives into jeopardy.
Hence, regulators imposed very strict conditions for Airlines
to follow to ensure that aircraft maintenance is kept to the
highest standard.
Before an aircraft is released for flight, all the systems
are properly certified by the various Aircraft Engineers that
they are fit and serviceable for flight. After every
landing at the following airport, a similar check is also
carried out. Any defects are duly rectified before the
next flight.
Basically there are two types of maintenance. There
is the scheduled maintenance and an unscheduled one where
defects are rectified when they are reported by the aircrew
after every flight.
Scheduled maintenance are very detailed work carried out on
the aircraft at specified period or when life of the various
aircraft components expire.
Overall, a typical maintenance program would be something
like this:
-
Prior to every flight, maintenance personnel would
conduct a thorough visual inspection of the aircraft,
checking for dents, damage or cracks on the body and any
oil or fuel leaks from the systems.
-
In addition, after every 3 to 5 days, the plane's
surface controls, namely the elevator, ailerons, flaps and
rudders would also be thoroughly checked. It would
also include the landing gears, brakes, various fluid
level as well as the oxygen system.
-
Every 8 months, the internal control system, all the
emergency equipment and the hydraulic system are carefully
checked.
-
Every 12 to 17 months, the maintenance crew do an even
more detailed check using devices to probe for wear and
tear, corrosion and cracks in components that are
not visible to the eyes.
-
After every 3 to 5 years, the aircraft is taken apart
for a major overhaul. This entails the removal of major
components that are life expired and replaced with newer
ones where applicable.
Where is the safest
seat that I should be sitting in an event of a crash?
Theoretically speaking, the better seat to look for is one
that is facing to the back of the aircraft. Why is
it so? A backward facing seat gives better protection to a
passenger in an event of an impact because of the back cushion. Unfortunately, you
can never find one nowadays in any Airline except in those VIP
or executive jets. It appears that such backward
facing seats does not appeal to the fare paying passengers.
Naturally, most people want to choose a seat that is forward
looking.
Practically, there is no specific area that is safer than
the other. Of course, some believe that it is safer to
sit near the wings or in the rear of the cabin. However
if you want to be extra cautious, naturally the better place
to be in an event of an emergency evacuation is to be near an
emergency exit.
During which phase
of the flight should I be more alert than other times?
The take off and climb to cruising altitude and the descent
and landing phase of the airplane are the two most critical
phase of the entire journey. Why? This is because the
engines are at their maximum power in order to safely lift
off off the ground whereas during the cruising phase,
the engine thrust are considerably reduced. During the
final approach and landing, the cockpit crew have to cope with
many variables like strong winds, low level turbulence, wind
shear or low visibility. Such weather phenomena do put a lot
of demand on the cockpit crew. Statically, about seventy
percent of all serious accidents occur during these critical
phase of flight that may only constitute about less that five
percent of the whole journey.
Are
older planes less reliable?
All aircraft components have a
life that are monitored very closely. When they are due, the
components must be changed and the aircraft engineer are under
a duty to certified its replacement. Unlike a car where most
people only replace a particular part when it breaks down, a
fully serviceable component in a aircraft must be replaced
when the life, measured in terms of hours are up.
Therefore an older aircraft with new components after a major
overhaul is almost just as good as a new aircraft.
What are the likely
causes of an air crash?
The chances of an aircraft crashing is
statistically very low but given the wide publicity generated by
the media, it appears that statistics are misleading to the
average air traveler. Having said that, Murphy Law will point
out that what can go wrong can go wrong.
Causes of an air crash are hard to pinpoint. You
can have people hijacking an aircraft and deliberately crashing
it into high rise building like the September 11th tragedy at
the Twin Towers and others like the Airbus 300 that crashed
after about two and a half minutes after take off from JFK
Airport in New York. To precisely analyze the actual cause
of the crash, the 'black box' which contains a voice recorder
and a flight data recorder, will assist the investigators to
determine what actually transpired during the last 30 minutes of
the flight.
Imagine yourself driving a car and someone ask
you hypothetically as to how likely are you going to be involved
in a crash when you drive on the highway. You would say, very
unlikely. Okay, I admire your confidence. Think
about this. Air travel is about 20 times safer than
driving. Now you can forget about what can cause an
airplane to crash!
What are the more common emergencies that I can expect
in a flight?
Even though airplane are very reliable, bearing
in mind Murphy Law, one must still prepare for any exigencies.
There are two very important emergencies that every air traveler
must be prepared to face every time you fly. They are the
emergency evacuation drills and the usage of emergency oxygen
system in an event of unforeseen depressurization. (You
can refer to this topic in the FAQS) Unfortunately, I have observed
that not all the air travelers paid very much attention to
demonstration by the cabin crew. (Maybe they have great
confidence in the airplane!)
Who investigates air accidents and make
recommendations for improvement?
Whenever there is an airline accident,
the first thing that occurs will be the formation of an
investigation team whose task would be to determine the cause
of the crash and then make recommendations for future
improvement. The responsibility of convening such
a team lies with the country where the accident occurs
or country where the aircraft was registered. In
the United States, the National Transport Safety Board (NTSB),
the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the aircraft and
engines manufacturers and the Airline involved would be
involved in the investigation. If the accident involved
sabotage or hijacking like the September 11th attack in Twin
Towers and the Pentagon, the Federal Bureau of Investigation
would also be involved in the investigation.
Is
this information sufficient for your general knowledge?
| Yes |
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